Vermont Covid-19 Infection Rates - Updated Daily

As many of my readers know, I've been transcribing the Vermont Department of Health (VDH) infection rate data into a control chart every day for months now. 

I'm going to be posting the most up to date version on this page daily (or as soon as I have the figures). Please feel free to email me if there are any questions at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.



UPDATE 5-12-22 - Lower restrictions, rate goes up, and up, and up...  

The last four weeks has seen a steady increase in infection rates across Vermont. The graphs above shows the net effect. The mean has increased to 327 per day, from 247 pr daywith upper control limits increasing to 564 per day from 412 per day. This is bad news in that the overall infection rate is rising once more. Our hospitalization numbers are also increasing. Currently we have 7 ICU beds occupied with Covid 19 patients, and a further 45 in general hospitalization. Our hospital system is under stress, and the increases will only exacerbate this. 

These are numbers on  VT Statewide basis, so this will vary significantly depending on location.  Please don't forget - this is a lagging indicator, so infection rate changes will not show up in this for a couple of weeks after any major shift. The sharp eyed among you will have noticed that the numbers tend to change daily also. This is because of the way the state of VT records cases as confirmed or probable, with some probably cases translating to confirmed cases in the days that follow the discovery.

There are 648 unfortunate Vermonters having departed since the start of the pandemic owing to Covid-19 in VT as of yesterday. The death rate is falling, but the numbers continue to increase. 

We now have clear evidence that when restrictions are lifted, infection rates spike. It happened on July 4th 2021, and again on Christmas day 2021. Both times saw significant spikes in infections a few days afterwards. We at Bryan Research urge the Governor to change course in his management of the pandemic in VT. Lifting all restrictions was the wrong decision - the numbers prove that. We are extremely concerned about the messaging being sent to the population of Vermont at this time. Until we reach herd immunity with vaccinations, our safety measures MUST be followed. 

I want to be really clear on something. THIS IS INEVITABLE WHEN OUR COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOR DOES NOT CHANGE. The virus doesn't care if you're Republican, Democrat, Old, Young, Male or Female. It only cares about infection and propagation. Reduce the number of opportunities it has to transmit to others. Wear a mask. Stay 6 feet apart. Don't congregate indoors. These are NOT political acts. 

I need to apologize for the decreased frequency of updates to this page. I have recently had to devote more time to work situations, which has led to less to devote to this. I am hoping update twice a week from now onwards.