Vermont Covid-19 Infection Rates - Updated Daily

As many of my readers know, I've been transcribing the Vermont Department of Health (VDH) infection rate data into a control chart every day for months now. 

I'm going to be posting the most up to date version on this page daily (or as soon as I have the figures). Please feel free to email me if there are any questions at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.




UPDATE 11-22-21 - Accelerating into the void

On 7-15-21 I wrote "After a few weeks of steadily declining infection rates, we have seen a doubling of mean rates to 12, with an upper control limit of 28, and lower control limit of 0. This means on any given day we should expect between 0 and 28 infections for the whole state of VT, with an average of 12. This increase is significant, as it coincides with the Governor's lifting all restrictions in VT for July 4th. We cannot reinforce strongly enough that this was a bad mistake. Clearly, our infection rates are increasing once more and with unrestricted behavior, it is likely we will see further increases in the coming weeks. I'll be monitoring the situation carefully as always, so make sure to bookmark this page and come back frequently for the most up to date and real numbers and analysis of Covid-19 infection rate figures in VT. "

How I wish I had been wrong. 

The last three weeks have seen a huge increase in infection rates across Vermont. The graph above shows the net effect. The mean increased from 207 to 349 per day, with upper control limits increasing from 413 to 658 per day. Despite high vaccination rates, our numbers continue to increase. This is having the same impact on our health system as at the start of the pandemic in 2020. Currently we have 16 ICU beds occupied with Covid 19 patients, and a further 52 in general hospitalization. Today the Governor's office issued warnings regarding the availability of ICU beds, in advance of the typical flu season. 

These are numbers on  VT Statewide basis, so this will vary significantly depending on location.  Please don't forget - this is a lagging indicator, so infection rate changes will not show up in this for a couple of weeks after any major shift. The sharp eyed among you will have noticed that the numbers tend to change daily also. This is because of the way the state of VT records cases as confirmed or probable, with some probably cases translating to confirmed cases in the days that follow the discovery.

There are 406 unfortunate souls having departed since the start of the pandemic owing to Covid-19 in VT as of yesterday. The death rate is rising again after months of stagnation. 

We at Bryan Research urge the Governor to change course in his management of the pandemic in VT. Lifting all restrictions was the wrong decision - the numbers prove that. We are extremely concerned about the messaging being sent to the population of Vermont at this time. Until we reach herd immunity with vaccinations, our safety measures MUST be followed. Our infection rate is increasing rapidly again, and people are still dying - two more in the last few days. 

I want to be really clear on something. THIS IS INEVITABLE WHEN OUR COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOR DOES NOT CHANGE. The virus doesn't care if you're Republican, Democrat, Old, Young, Male or Female. It only cares about infection and propagation. Reduce the number of opportunities it has to transmit to others. Wear a mask. Stay 6 feet apart. Don't congregate indoors. These are NOT political acts. 

I need to apologize for the decreased frequency of updates to this page. I have recently had to devote more time to work situations, which has led to less to devote to this. I am hoping update twice a week from now onwards. 

It is increasingly difficult to not delve into politics on this page. I cannot express how dismayed I am at this latest increase in infection rate. we were so close to reducing the rate to single digits consistently and controlling the pandemic in VT, but we collectively took our foot off the brakes. I hope we come to our collective senses before more individuals contract Covid 19. It's only collectively we will bring this pandemic under control. Vaccines are now freely available, with plans in place to maintain that availability along with testing.