As many of my readers know, I've been transcribing the Vermont Department of Health (VDH) infection rate data into a control chart every day for months now. 

I'm going to be posting the most up to date version on this page daily (or as soon as I have the figures). Please feel free to email me if there are any questions at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

UPDATE 1-23-22 - Over the hump? 

The last couple of weeks has seen a steady decrease in infection rates across Vermont, although the mean remains increased. The graphs above shows the net effect. The mean increased from 1575 to 1648 per day, with upper control limits decreasing from 3403 to 3399 per day. Despite high vaccination rates, our numbers continue to increase. This is having the same impact on our health system as at the start of the pandemic in 2020. Currently we have 23 ICU beds occupied with Covid 19 patients, and a further 82 in general hospitalization. Our hospital system is under severe stress, and the increases show no signs of slowing down. 

These are numbers on  VT Statewide basis, so this will vary significantly depending on location.  Please don't forget - this is a lagging indicator, so infection rate changes will not show up in this for a couple of weeks after any major shift. The sharp eyed among you will have noticed that the numbers tend to change daily also. This is because of the way the state of VT records cases as confirmed or probable, with some probably cases translating to confirmed cases in the days that follow the discovery.

There are 521 unfortunate souls having departed since the start of the pandemic owing to Covid-19 in VT as of yesterday. The death rate is rising again after months of stagnation. 

We now have clear evidence that when restrictions are lifted, infection rates spike. It happened on July 4th 2021, and again on Christmas day 2021. Both times saw significant spikes in infections a few days afterwards. We at Bryan Research urge the Governor to change course in his management of the pandemic in VT. Lifting all restrictions was the wrong decision - the numbers prove that. We are extremely concerned about the messaging being sent to the population of Vermont at this time. Until we reach herd immunity with vaccinations, our safety measures MUST be followed. Our infection rate is increasing rapidly again, and people are still dying. 

I want to be really clear on something. THIS IS INEVITABLE WHEN OUR COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOR DOES NOT CHANGE. The virus doesn't care if you're Republican, Democrat, Old, Young, Male or Female. It only cares about infection and propagation. Reduce the number of opportunities it has to transmit to others. Wear a mask. Stay 6 feet apart. Don't congregate indoors. These are NOT political acts. 

I need to apologize for the decreased frequency of updates to this page. I have recently had to devote more time to work situations, which has led to less to devote to this. I am hoping update twice a week from now onwards. 

It is increasingly difficult to not delve into politics on this page. I cannot express how dismayed I am at this latest increase in infection rate. we were so close to reducing the rate to single digits consistently and controlling the pandemic in VT, but we collectively took our foot off the brakes. I hope we come to our collective senses before more individuals contract Covid 19. It's only collectively we will bring this pandemic under control. Vaccines are now freely available, with plans in place to maintain that availability along with testing. 

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