As many of my readers know, I've been transcribing the Vermont Department of Health (VDH) infection rate data into a control chart every day for months now. 

I'm going to be posting the most up to date version on this page daily (or as soon as I have the figures). Please feel free to email me if there are any questions at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

UPDATE 1-26-21 - Stability

The infection rate appears to be stabilizing over the last month or so. The mean has shifted to 144 per day, with an upper control limit of 252 per day. The behavior of today's data point on the graph shows why it is so dangerous to take one day's results and take that as indicative of "good" or "bad" progress. It is easy to look at the VTDOH dashboard and think "The rate is going down!". In reality, the mean, and variation around that mean are the true indicators of how the infection rate is progressing in VT, and these are stable. It's also worth noting that the mean and upper control limits are steadily decreasing day to day as new daily figures are calculated. As the variation day to day becomes less, this is normal behavior for a control chart.

The upper control limit of 252 per day means we can confidently expect between 0 and 252 cases per day, but around 144 per day on average under normal circumstances without any specific causes (natural variation). These are numbers on  VT Statewide basis, so this will vary significantly depending on location.  Please don't forget - this is a lagging indicator, so infection rate changes will not show up in this for a couple of weeks after any major shift. The post Christmas surge is a classic example, with a marked spike beginning some 6 days after Christmas day itself. The sharp eyed among you will have noticed that the numbers tend to change daily also. This is because of the way the state of VT records cases as confirmed or probable, with some probably cases translating to confirmed cases in the days that follow the discovery.

My projection is that the post Christmas surge rate appears to have stabilized as an increased norm. Hopefully this is temporary, and as life settles back down from the holiday period social stresses, the infection rate will return to pre Christmas levels or below. My hope is that with increased vigilance and compliance we will be able to reduce that rate. I would implore you to follow the official state directions as much as possible. It's only collectively we will bring this pandemic under control. Vaccines are now being distributed, and administered to population groups in a structured rollout. By April / May we could be out of this and into some semblance of normality once again. Short term pain for long term gain. 

There are 172 unfortunate souls having departed since the start of the pandemic owing to Covid-19 in VT as of yesterday. 

We at Bryan Research applaud the Governor implementing drastic control measures, but strongly advise we need to go further. Such measures should include:

- Mandatory wearing of masks, with penalties for non compliance

- A VT wide lockdown of movement, except for essential workers

- A state funded assistance scheme to enable workers to stay at home and not suffer financial harm

- A statewide multi channel communication plan to educate and inform the public of current infection rates and programs.

The virus doesn't care if you're Republican, Democrat, Old, Young, Male or Female. It only cares about infection and propagation. Reduce the number of opportunities it has to transmit to others. Wear a mask. Stay 6 feet apart. Don't congregate indoors. These are NOT political acts. 

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