As many of my readers know, I've been transcribing the Vermont Department of Health (VDH) infection rate data into a control chart every day for months now. 

I'm going to be posting the most up to date version on this page daily (or as soon as I have the figures). Please feel free to email me if there are any questions at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

UPDATE 5-12-21 - Stability

The previous rate drop at 4/18/2 stabilized for almost two weeks around a mean of 73 per day, with a UCL of 142 and LCL of 3. The last ten days data seem to indicate a reducing trend, as the mean, UCL and LCL are all falling. I am monitoring the progression and will conduct another data break as and when the indicators dictate it. This is good news. It shows real progress is being made to contain Covid-19 in VT. 

Unfortunately this will  only increase the volume of people proclaiming we should all get back to normal lives. I can see restrictions being lifted, people getting excited about getting out and back to socializing more, and generally getting back to normal. The progress of the vaccination efforts is partially fueling this. We need to remain vigilant for a few months more until we can get to herd immunity and see the infection rate reduce and stabilize.

The current upper control limit of 139 per day, Lower Control Limit of 5 per day and mean of 67 per day means we can confidently expect between 5 and 139 cases per day, but around 67 per day on average under normal circumstances without any specific causes (natural variation). These are numbers on  VT Statewide basis, so this will vary significantly depending on location.  Please don't forget - this is a lagging indicator, so infection rate changes will not show up in this for a couple of weeks after any major shift. The post Christmas surge is a classic example, with a marked spike beginning some 6 days after Christmas day itself. The sharp eyed among you will have noticed that the numbers tend to change daily also. This is because of the way the state of VT records cases as confirmed or probable, with some probably cases translating to confirmed cases in the days that follow the discovery.

My projection is that with increased vigilance and compliance we will be able to reduce that rate even more. I would implore you to follow the official state directions as much as possible. It's only collectively we will bring this pandemic under control. Vaccines are now being distributed, and administered to population groups in a structured rollout. By May / June we could be out of this and into some semblance of normality once again. Short term pain for long term gain. 

There are 252 unfortunate souls having departed since the start of the pandemic owing to Covid-19 in VT as of yesterday. 

We at Bryan Research applaud the Governor implementing drastic control measures, but strongly advise we need to go further. Such measures should include:

- Mandatory wearing of masks, with penalties for non compliance

- A VT wide lockdown of movement, except for essential workers

- A state funded assistance scheme to enable workers to stay at home and not suffer financial harm

- A statewide multi channel communication plan to educate and inform the public of current infection rates and programs.

We are concerned about the messaging being sent to the population of Vermont at this time. It appears that, with the vaccination program well underway, the state and media are projecting a relaxation of cautionary measures with immediate effect. We would caution strongly against this. Until we reach herd immunity with vaccinations, our safety measures MUST be followed. Our infection rate is showing good progress to reduction. This is not the time to step on the brakes in our efforts to contain this virus. 

The virus doesn't care if you're Republican, Democrat, Old, Young, Male or Female. It only cares about infection and propagation. Reduce the number of opportunities it has to transmit to others. Wear a mask. Stay 6 feet apart. Don't congregate indoors. These are NOT political acts. 

• Next